Getting Used to Disappointment

Bill Evans - Who Can I Turn To?

So if you turned on the news at all last night, you probably saw something about the Iranian elections, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's apparent landslide victory. I'm not going to lie (and because I'm not a journalist or a politician, I don't have to), I'm pretty unhappy about it. One of the oft-cited reasons for Ahmadinejad's success among the average Iranian people is that he defies the West in speech and action, even when it seems unnecessary, and so as a guy hoping for some kind of move forward in Iran-US relations in the near future, I'm more than a little bothered by the results. Of course, it is still going to depend equally on both parties to not mess each other around and treat each other right, but this election might indicate that it's pretty much officially more in Iran's interest to thumb their nose at us than pursue a rapprochement. The US doesn't necessarily depend on Iran for any obvious economic reasons, but our strategic interests there are increasingly vast. In contrast, Ahmadinejad and his supporters seem to only gain more power and credibility at home every time they piss off the US.

It's a funny thing though. If you had been reading stories mostly out of the Western media in the weeks leading up to the election, you'd have imagined a landslide victory for Mousavi, and now all of those same journalists are questioning the validity of the elections. I get it, nobody likes to be wrong about stuff. Nonetheless, there are some significant "irregularities," as Mousavi himself has called them, already on the record, and maybe some people are hoping more will come to light in the coming days. Already there are reports that at several polling stations in pro-Mousavi camps, there was a mysterious shortage of ballots and many stations were closed early without explanation, even with long lines snaking around them. During the day of voting, many pro-Mousavi websites were suddenly inaccessible, and text messaging, seen as a way for especially the young Mousavi supporters to spread news and organize, was blocked altogether. After the election results were announced, Mousavi's campaign headquarters were closed down by police and kept under heavy guard. The few protests that started in the streets of Tehran were dispersed with batons and arrests. The committee that had overseen the voting and counting of votes from the very beginning was controlled by Ahmadinejad. Of course, every election all over the world probably has a long list of stuff like this, but that doesn't make it any less frustrating this time, does it?

Anyway, if that vote displays the true will of the Iranian people, then nobody has anything to complain about. But I was really hoping to get an Iranian visa at some point. At any rate, I'm glad to say that Mousavi has declared he will make sure that fairness has been implemented, in whatever ways he can. There's the hard part - the real muscle of the government (the armed forces and the Supreme Leader) are pretty much on Ahmadinejad's side. So, "whatever ways he can" is pretty much limited to saying a whole lot and watching dramatically as nothing happens, I think. I don't want to sound too cynical here, but...well, I don't really know how to finish that.

In slightly less depressing news, George Mitchell, the US envoy to the Middle East, has been quietly making his way around the region meeting with the Palestinians, the Israelis, and the Syrians. The Syrians are on board to resume talks with Israel. The Palestinians are officially committed to the "road map" from 2003. Benyamin Netanyahu is giving a speech tomorrow that is supposed to address this entire issue. I'll be back with something on that tomorrow or Monday.

Update @ 11:31 AM Central - The BBC reports that clashes have broken out in the streets. The police are beating people up.

Here is a video of the Iranian police beating the snot out of people.



Here's a link to a Flickr page with photos from the streets of Tehran today.