All That I Don't Know

So a few things - first, here is today's song:



João Gilberto - É Preciso Perdoar

Yeah, definitely trying to put both feet on the ground over the Iran thing now - frankly, I don't even know what a lot of people are hoping for and that makes it difficult to feel one way or another about it. These blog feeds are misleading because it makes you feel like every single person in Iran is marching against the government, but they aren't! The information is so mixed up or concealed or just plain nonexistent, which makes things even more difficult. I mean, it's very likely that a ton of people actually did go out and vote for Ahmadinejad; it's naive (and almost kind of offensive) to assume that people were only voting for vague notions of "increased social freedoms," especially when a lot of Iranians I've talked to here don't seem to associate Mousavi with those ideas very much. I just don't know; it seems unlikely that supporters of Ahmadinejad voted in favor of less freedom and equality; I feel like the issues are just not that simple. The point is, there are other factors to be considered; it's still careful we don't jump to conclusions. It's well-known that Ahmadinejad is loved by many for being perceived as a strong leader; he's cultivated an image of himself as an everyman free of corruption and as a fighter for the people, and whether he actually is that or not is irrelevant as he still has tons of supporters, especially in the rural areas:

The Iranian countryside, where the slogans you're more likely to hear might include, "Where is my goat!?"

Additionally, all of this makes me wonder: What actually is it that people following these events want, myself included? People aren't just expecting something to happen, they are hoping something will happen. I'm sure the ideas are all over the place, but it's interesting to remember as we watch and read and talk to people that everyone interested in this does in fact have some kind of ideal resolution in mind.

At any rate, I feel like not enough time has passed for any real evidence to be looked at or considered. All we really know is that Iran is trying to keep information locked down tight, and obviously that is bad, and that people have died, which is tragic, but we really don't know anything else. I hate to sound smug, but it almost kind of pleases me a bit in these kinds of events when people come out and throw their big ol' opinion out there about exactly what will happen, because there's always a fairly good chance it won't. Take for example, this article that mentions a quote by Richard Bulliet, Iran expert at Columbia University. Check the quote by Professor Bulliet:

“The regime will quell the discontent."

Wow, homeboy nailed it. So definitive...almost like he knows something! But seriously, I don't think it's good to make such definitive statements just because you're an "Iran expert." I'm not an anti-intellectual or something, but I think someone can be an Iran expert but maybe not an expert on other things, like human psychology or government or religion. All three of those things are major factors in the events happening now, so someone like Professor Bulliet might actually be sort of limited in their expertise when it comes to straight-up predicting the future. It's usually just better not to call it either way. Let's just hope more people don't die.

Oh yeah, tomorrow I shall bring pictures of the protest that took place in Austin today!